Beyond 3G Leadership, Singapore Challenges and Concerns
By Dr John Yam Poh Nam, Ph.D. (University of South Australia),
MBA (University of Strathclyde), B. Eng, Electrical (National University of Singapore)
According to an old Chinese maxim, "Wealth does not last beyond a third generation". As the current political leadership of Singapore identifies its fourth generation of post-independence successors, it is entering into a new era of entirely new challenges. Will this fourth generation of leadership spell the beginning of the end of Singapore ’s political legacy? History is littered with numerous examples of the fall of political legacies after a few generations, from ancient China to stories from the Old Testament.
Qing Dynasty (1644-1911) – Kang Hsi (康熙) built Qing empire; Yongzheng (雍正) expanded the empire; Qian Long (乾隆), marks the decline of the Qing Dynasty.
Ming Dynasty (1368-1644) – After Zhu Yuanzhang (朱元璋) passed the throne to his grandchildren, palace bloodshed ensued.
Tang Dynasty (618-907) – Empress Wu (武则天,624-705) almost led to the downfall of Tang Dynasty after Li Shi Min(唐太宗) and Li Yuan(李淵).
Old Testament – King David and Solomon were the peak of the Kingdom before the next two generations divided it into Israel and Judah.
The current political leadership challenges faced are not just about maintaining of the legacy, but that of national survival. To survive this transition, we need to clearly identify, set priorities and be focused in managing these new challenges facing our society. A sustainable long term political leadership style and model that promotes a more politically healthy and stable Singapore is very crucial. Political stability is necessary to effectively tackle these internal and external challenges facing our country. They can be categorised into the following macro environmental factors:
1. Political
2. Economic
3. Social
4. Technological
The environment we live in is made up of its people – the primary element. The core of these challenges lies in the interaction between our macro environment and the way our people think, behave and their expectations and goals in life. How people are governed will depend on the types of leaders they elect to lead the country. On the other hand, environmental factors change and how people think and behave will determine the type of leadership and model that will lead the country. These factors are constantly changing and affecting each other. As these factors are very complex, we need to analyse them individually, starting with the political factor.
1. Political Factor
As a metropolitan Asian trading hub, Singapore is very much exposed to external influence. The political model based on free election and multi-political party coalition governments has become increasingly the norm in many Asian countries, except China , Burma , Vietnam and North Korea . Singaporeans, mostly western educated, are more influenced by the western lifestyle and tend to speak out their minds. As such, our existing political system faces an increasing pressure to fulfil the more diverse and complex needs of a better educated, informed and sophisticated electorate with a higher intellectual background. With economic growth and wealth, Singaporeans are shifting towards satisfying a higher hierarchy of psychological needs, including more overseas travel for holidays or for education. All these expose Singaporeans to western style democracy. In addition, the ruling party is also under pressure from neighbouring countries with healthy democratic multi-party governments. Changes in the other macro environmental factors are exerting greater pressure on the government to implement more political changes. Expectations that alternative voices be heard in parliament are growing. A succession plan that takes into account the challenges and demands from the people will be crucial within the ruling party. A re-structured, non-allegiant civil service is important. The next era, with an entirely new set of thinking, behaviour and expectations, will see the need for a new political order for Singapore ; one that includes the ruling party, the civil service and the opposition political parties.
i. Leadership Succession
The leadership succession process is complex and in view of the uncertainties that Singapore could face, will require a systematic plan within the ruling party, civil service and the opposition parties. One would only need to look at the situation in Malaysia and North Korea for examples of challenges faced during leadership transition. Obviously, in Singapore there has been no alternative to the ruling party to the People’s Action Party (PAP) government. This is akin to an aeroplane that is flying without a backup engine. We recall the time when two in-office deputy prime ministers were diagnosed with cancer. Would Singapore be able to handle future similar political leadership crises? Like any other organisation, what if the day comes when there is disunity within the ruling party? Would it be able to function effectively? Our existing political leadership efforts have always been in identifying leadership succession. Our political system has not matured to a stage where we have potential succession of and by a political party.
ii. Government Backup – a Backup Engine
Is our current one-party system model of government sustainable? Long term checks and balances on the government or even an alternative to the current government have still yet to emerge. The current ruling party has managed to secure almost all parliamentary seats in the past elections. Among other reasons, this can be attributed to:
- a large pool of resources and grassroots movements
- financial aids during economic crises
- the Housing and Development Board (HDB) upgrading programme
The country’s resources will be depleted under a prolonged economic crisis leading to less financial aid and a slowdown in the HDB upgrading programme. What would be the impact on Singapore if, opposition political parties win 2 to 3 Group Representative Constituencies (GRCs) in the next General Election (GE)? Will the stock market react strongly? How will the present government function if there are 20 to 30 opposition Members of Parliament (MPs) in the parliament? What impact will this have on Singapore ’s political environment? Will Singaporeans still vote exclusively for the current ruling party in the next GE? A stable and peaceful rise of multi-parties politics is healthy for Singapore ’s long term political stability and economic growth.
iii. Financial Aid Programmes
The ruling party’s aid programmes for the needy in the form of financial handouts could potentially be a political setback for them in the long run. What if the government runs into a serious deficit and can no longer afford to continue these financial handouts? Will this mismatch in expectations raise protests? Will these programmes lead to a welfare state? Will they result in increased pressure on the economy? Instead of providing cash handouts, the government should focus in narrowing the rich-poor income divide through a more creative tax system and curb inflation in the expenditure for basic needs.
2. Economic Factors
Internal and external conditions are putting pressure on our economy. Our domestic economy lacks scale with mega projects limited to the two Integrated Resorts (IRs), nation-wide fibre broadband installation and HDB upgrading. External competition from our neighbours goes beyond labour costs. If we push the economy hard, spiral inflation may result, putting pressure on low income earners to cope with the already high cost of living.
i. Neighbours Catching Up
Neighbouring countries and others in Asia, like China , are fast catching up. Big modern cities like Beijing , Shanghai and Kuala Lumpur are becoming regional headquarters of multinationals and American start-ups. The Singaporean English-speaking advantage is being eroded as these countries are increasingly mastering the use of English language. Besides, these countries are investing in or selling their products and services into our country. There is a large Chinese presence in construction projects in Singapore , including the mega projects like the two IRs.
ii. Upcoming Mega Projects or Investments
More than 80 percent of the upgrading of older estates has already been completed. Mega projects like the Mass Rapid Transit circle line and expressway infrastructure are already in their final phases of implementation. Are there other domestic developments to keep our economy growing? Unlike Taiwan and South Korea , many of our overseas investments, like the overseas industrial parks, have yet to see long term profitable return on investment.
iii. Overly Frenetic Pace of and Emphasis on Economic Development
Our economy has been developing too quickly for lower income earners to catch up. The mega plans envisioned by our leaders has added immense pressure on Singaporeans to deliver, resulting in overwork, fatigue and ultimately, alienation. This is against an ancient Chinese wisdom of " The Doctrine of the Mean " (中庸之道) where development is neither too fast nor too slow but just right for people to stay on pace. If nothing is being done to correct the pacing over time, societal ills will show in such an overheated economy.
iv. Sustainable Economy
Our export-driven economy has, for many years, been a manufacturing base for multinationals. When other countries started competing on cost in traditional industries like ship building, oil refinery and electronics and hard disk drive manufacturing, Singapore’s strategy was to shift to higher value and capital intensive Research & Development (R&D) and manufacturing, like pharmaceuticals and wafer fabrication. However, our over-reliance on foreign manufacturing investment leaves our economy more vulnerable to international uncertainties. Unlike Taiwan and South Korea , we do not have locally developed products.. Under such constraints, our economic growth will be hard-pressed to face the intense competition from the newly emerging economies.
3. Social Factors
There are several social changes that could affect our political environment. These include:
- a better educated younger elite
- an affluent population
- new immigrants
i. Education System
Singapore’s education system has gone through many changes, especially in the areas of streaming and the learning of Mandarin. The system is overly focused on performance ranking, academic achievement and the acquisition of skills to prepare students for the rat race and paper chase. Moral education and character developments seem lacking, if the increasing reports on teenage suicide and sex are anything to go by. Have we done enough to get to the root causes of these social problems? The current system of school ranking and teacher performance appraisals need to be reviewed.
ii. Educated New Generation
The streaming policy has led to a culture of elitism. The quest for knowledge feeds the competition for grades, which students partake in so that they can move on to next level of their education or secure a better paying job. Once attained, students tend to lose the motivation to upgrade themselves. Sadly, it is perhaps for this reason that the initiative to promote lifelong learning and inculcate it as an attitude and practice didn’t start in the schools but originated from the labour movement. Our education policy has undergone too many changes that may be in conflict with the ancient philosophical wisdom of "Bai Nian Shu Ren"( 百年树人 ).
iii. Complacent Affluent Society
The youth of this era grew up in a highly stable and affluent environment which leads or perhaps more aptly misleads them into acquiring a sense of complacency and taking things for granted. The youths are apolitical and self-centred. In addition, compared with the youths in Hong Kong and Taiwan , the typical Singaporean youth does not have a sense of entrepreneurship, much less to ever aspire to become an entrepreneur. Can this be attributed to the dominance of civil service jobs and the presence of multi-national corporations? The civil service takes in the most talented scholars who might not have had the exposure to or have ventured into business. Singapore is a country with good administrators but a society badly in need of entrepreneurs.
The same thought could apply to our political scene. Many of our ruling party MPs have not faced the competitive parliamentary election process. Over the years under the GRC scheme, it is a fact that, especially when there is a walkover, one or more new faces from the ruling party’s new blood would typically enjoy hitching a ‘political easy ride’ into parliament comfortably under the ‘wings of a heavy-weight serving minister and veteran politician’ without having to go through the ‘political baptism of fire’ as a SMC candidate would have to. Within any GRC, the truth is voters in the first place were never given a free choice to vote for candidates. When there is contest, unlike their SMC counterparts who can choose the candidate they want as MP, voters in GRCs can only choose all or none of the candidates. Nothing in between. In effect, voters do not have a real choice over the individual candidates. This is tantamount to voting for political parties, not the candidates. For first-time voters in any GRC with such realisation, it would be very interesting to know how they will think and act with their votes.
iv. New Immigrants
As the number of immigrants and Permanent Residents (PRs) settling down permanently in Singapore increases, adjustment and adaptation for these groups of people will be needed. As it is, Singaporeans already regard them as "aliens" and competition for jobs. Such a situation could be exploited politically.
v. Quality of Lifestyle
People increasingly face higher costs of living as the pressure of high economic growth mounts. Singaporeans, especially the middle and lower income earners, are working harder to earn enough to pay off their housing, renovation and other loans. Some take on second jobs. There has been a significant rise in Singaporeans seeking psychiatric help and committing suicides. Perhaps it is time to find out if there is a direct correlation between a highly stressed population and the country’s rising suicide rates. Although our local press The Straits Times (29th July, 2009) reported suicide rates in Singapore dropped to their lowest level in nine years, to 8.76 per 100,000 residents in 2008, is this a true total picture of the suicide rate in our society? Perhaps this report drawn too early conclusion that our suicide rate in Singapore in decreasing.
4. Technological Factors
Traditional broadcast and print media are no longer the only media reaching out to the masses. The digital media and Internet have facilitated the speed and access to information that were erstwhile not so readily available. They have also created a borderless environment where online games and communication tools like Skype, MSN and Yahoo enable people to communicate and exchange ideas. Despite tough regulatory clampdowns on some information on the Internet, the number of “Netizens” continues to grow dramatically. This availability of choices impact the way we think, work and play.
This overwhelming amount of information on the media and the Internet has developed greater space for freedom of thoughts and a new generation who are not afraid to voice their opinions. This will have deep and far-reaching implications on our political environment. However, we recognise that this also means that our people need to be discerning with the information they find, especially in the areas of race and religion where misinformation has the potential to weaken our grassroots and potentially harm our nation.
Political Model for the Future
Under these macro environmental pressures, it is necessary to identify a political structure that is suitable for the long term stability of Singapore . This necessity will in turn will put pressure on the current political system in Singapore in areas dealing with:
- Singapore ’s investment in other countries
- export market for our services and goods
- competition for foreign investments and the export of product and services
- Alliance with countries and trading partners
What Next?
As Singapore heads towards a more mature political system, we need to question the direction in which we are heading. Will it be a more open and transparent system of governance, or one where the present ruling party continues to have a monopoly on the nation’s management of the media and financial resources? A strong multi-faceted thinking of opposing but balanced opinions has become necessary to provide not just checks and balances, but also resolution to all macro environmental issues discussed. Only then can we have a Singapore that is “built to last".
If opposition parties manage to win more parliamentary seats during the next two to three GEs, will the political order in Singapore be ready to forge a coalition government? We note a political stalwart’s recent visit to Malaysia and his meetings with various Malaysian opposition politicians, is perhaps, to share his long term strategic political vision for Singapore - a coalition government for Singapore . Together we serve our nation as one united people, regardless of race, language, religion or political parties.
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